Lee Hsien Loong and Ho Ching; Google

For the first time since 1965, the stars are finally all aligned and the PAP dictatorship will see it ending its 54-year rule on Singapore.

Specifically speaking, PAP losing the coming general election is a tactical failure and one that is authored by none other than itself. The ruling party governance created its own demise and everyone else is just mere catalysts.

There are too many outstanding issues that are left unattended and festering. Mathematically, it is a certainty that the PAP will lose the popular majority. Here is how it goes:

1) HDB lease debacle – 5%
For a start, the HDB lease issue has been a major trauma to ruling party supporters, who were tricked into believing that their HDB property value will appreciate forever. The fairy tale ended after Lee Hsien Loong confirmed that all HDB apartment will have no value by the end of lease, and that he has no plan to make compensation to everyone through the en bloc scheme. Elderly Singaporeans and new citizens who bought in Lee Kuan Yew’s earlier political advertisement are now dumbfounded by his son’s declaration. For HDB lease, let’s shave off 5% of the PAP votes, leaving only 65%.

2) CPF Withdrawal Age at 70 years old – 5%
The default Withdrawal Age has been unofficially raised to 70 years old, tricking uneducated elderly Singaporeans. More Singaporeans are starting to see the painful effect of poor CPF returns from a 2.5% low interest rate, that has been stuck since Lee Hsien Loong was handed premiership by his father in 2004. More people are unable to retire and the callous advice from the PAP leaders is to work more and longer. Just last week, Parliament Speaker Tan Chuan Jin proposed to raise CPF payment rate by 3 times for elderly retirees, and ridiculously declared that the solution to meeting CPF adequacy is to pay more to CPF. With more Singaporeans worried about their retirement today, they are likely to turn to the political solution of removing the dictatorship in the hope of getting back their CPF money. Then there are rising discontentment to the MediShield Life issue, compulsory ElderShield starting at the age of 30 years old and the mandatory CPF Life. CPF investment losses from GIC and Temasek Holdings is also becoming a concern as many become more worried about the actual amount left in the piggy. We can safely shave off another 5% from the failure of the CPF system, leaving a popular vote of 60%.

3) 9% GST – 5%
The rising cost of living has been an election issue since 2006, and this is expected to take a bigger presence with the incoming GST raise to 9%. The increase is expected to see Singaporeans of all income paying 28.5% in GST taxes (2% out of existing 7%), and kick off a wave of inflation in food prices. Gone will be the cheap hawker food, which has been Singapore’s trademark, and hawker food prices will soon hitting S$7 a plate. What’s unfortunate is that the GST increase is non-negotiable, Lee Hsien Loong has made it clear that it will be increased and no debate is allowed. Again, those looking for a political solution to reverse the GST increase will be another 5%, leaving the PAP with only 55% left.

4) Lee Kuan Yew’s last will – 5%
Lee Kuan Yew’s last will is of utmost importance, especially to the loyal PAP base who pledged their allegiance to the former Prime Minister. Lee Hsien Loong’s siblings, Lee Hsien Yang and Lee Wei Ling, have rebelled against the ruling party government headed by their “dishonourable” brother. The Prime Minister brother had abused parliament process and his premiership powers ordering that their 38 Oxley Road family house be preserved under the National Heritage Act, directly defying Lee Kuan Yew’s last will. Lee Hsien Loong also openly corrupted and called his former lawyer friend Lucien Wong, who is appointed Attorney General, to sue his sister-in-law Lee Suet Fern and his nephew Li Shengwu. Everyone supporting Lee Kuan Yew is dissatisfied with Lee Hsien Loong’s actions predating his own family members, and this is another 5% gone from the ruling party support: 50%.

5) All other domestic issues – 5%
Singaporeans are apathetic to current affairs issues, some may hear about this and that but in the hugely-propagandised environment where they grow up in, each of these domestic issues affect only a few. First there is the persistent failure of the public transport system: Bukit Panjang LRT was called an “oversight” by the Transport Minister, and the MRT trains are still seeing breakdowns regularly frustrating the general populace. Then there is the rising income inequality, which saw more people falling into poverty and earning barely enough for a living. Suicides is on the rise, more elderly poor are pushing trolleys of cardboard on the streets. Then again, these are non-issues to the middle class and rich who cares only for themselves. For the well-off, their pet peeves will be rising taxes. The elitist government tried to play Robin Hood by inching up corporate taxes and income tax. Businessmen and employers who are addicted to the government’s tax cuts and subsidies are now seeing rising business costs eating into their profits. Across all income percentile, the standards of living have declined. Then there is the National Service conscript deaths, influx of Indian professionals from the CECA agreement and the declining public confidence in the Singapore Courts to act independently in political cases like the S$33 million lawsuit involving 3 Workers’ Party MPs. Each domestic issue by itself won’t amount to much change but combining all these and we get another 5% off, throwing the PAP into the red of 45%.

6) Conflict with Malaysia – 5%
First we have the 1MDB issue, then the water price review, followed by the High Speed Rail issue, Southern Johor airspace, Johor Straits water territorial dispute and the latest Singapore-Johor RTS train link. None of the issue is resolved and more problems keep surfacing by the day. A declining diplomacy with Malaysia has spelled hardship for both Malaysians and Singaporeans, while the PAP government kept up its antics taunting Malaysia. What is really overlooked here is the strong presence of ex-Malaysians who are now new citizen Singaporeans, and they are unhappy with the rising conflict with Malaysia. These new citizens want to live in Johor and work in Singapore, capitalising on both sides and they are finding it harder to do so due to the quarrels. Malaysia’s new government is here to stay for at least the next 10 years, considering that Najib Razak and his UMNO party has been destroyed by his corruption case. As such, the only change can come only from the PAP, but the Singapore leaders have been unwilling to reconcile with Malaysia. There are an estimated of 500,000 Singaporeans who are formerly Malaysians or children of Malaysian parents. Malaysians finally saw the change in their country they wished for, and the PAP’s refusal to work with the new Malaysian government means these traditionally PAP voters are rebelling as well. 5% gone into 40% left.

7) No confidence in 4G leadership -5%
The present PAP administration has deviated from the Lee Kuan Yew administration, and public confidence for the much-touted “4G” leadership has declined. None of the new ministers like Chan Chun Sing, Heng Swee Keat, Lawrence Wong, Ong Ye Kung, Josephine Teo, Grace Fu and Tan Chuan Jin has presented themselves as capable leadership, or even coherent. The new leaders appear to be puppets under the strings of Lee Hsien Loong, and even copying his political style of “denial” and making window-dressing statements. The 4G leaders have also proven to be unable to take on important portfolios like Law and Affairs, which is still carried by K Shanmugam. There is only one Finance Minister thus far, Heng Swee Keat, as the others are unfit for office – and even so, he is seen handheld by Lee Hsien Loong in Parliament when making speeches. The 4G team is still inexperienced despite having drawn million dollar salaries for the past 10 years. Who knows how long more does their internship take? The lack of confidence in the 4G leadership. 1% gone, 39% left.

8) No more Lee Kuan Yew influence – 5%
As much as Singaporeans claim they are a democratic society, the majority of the PAP voter base is in fact fascist. They love Lee Kuan Yew, for debatable reasons but this election for the first time will see Lee Kuan Yew’s absence. In 2015, Lee Hsien Loong milked sympathy votes from his father’s death and won a resounding 70%. The tactic worked but it can only be used once. This year, Lee Hsien Loong dug up a new celebration calling it the “Bicentennial Celebration”. The ignoramous Prime Minister unwittingly created resentment from the public who questioned why is he celebrating the colonial slavery under the British. Despite big spendings on the plan, the Bicentennial plan failed to take off as most Singaporeans find it ridiculous to celebrate the British colonial invasion which the earlier PAP leaders fought so hard against. We are now down to 34%.

9) Rise of non-political opposition – 1%
Singaporeans do not have strong opposition alternatives, and their best bet is probably the Workers’ Party, the Singapore Democratic Party, Tan Cheng Bock and Lim Tean. Again, the apathetic majority who vote PAP has only but distaste for the local oppositions. This election also saw the rise of non-political factions like supporters of the leading independent news media, States Times Review and Singapore Herald. Thanks to Alex Tan’s analytical articles on 1MDB, more Singaporeans are now speaking up and openly calling Lee Hsien Loong corrupted. The climate of fear that held Singaporeans by their neck into voting PAP, is now gone. Nobody is afraid of defamation and contempt of court these days, and writer Leong Sze Hian’s counter lawsuits against the Prime Minister is unheard of 5 years ago. Change has taken seed in Singaporeans’ mind, and more are now vocal and undaunted by Lee Hsien Loong’s god-like status.

The PAP could only win 33% of the popular votes, and this means gerrymandering would only give them 7 major PAP-stronghold GRCs, or 42 seats out of 90. The above analysis is only a conservative estimate, but the loss for PAP is a certain.

Like Malaysians who removed their dictator Najib Razak, Singaporeans should now start preparing for a new Singapore. The country would be in a worse state than what Lee Hsien Loong presented, especially on the revelation of the national reserves and CPF funds. Then again, like all cancer therapy, Singaporeans is in for a hard time whether the PAP is in power or not, with the only difference being whether we could be on the path of recovery or further decline.

Alex Tan